Australia Weather News

New South Wales is in the middle of its 30th consecutive warmer-than-average winter, and a past staple of the season is rapidly vanishing.

Before the 21st Century, snow was a regular occurrence along the Great Dividing Range, and occasionally even extended across the state's west and coast.

For the higher Blue Mountains, just 30 kilometres from Western Sydney, a snowfall or two was almost guaranteed each year and some winters delivered more than 30 centimetres from Katoomba to Mount Victoria.

NSW's largest ever known snowstorm in 1900 dumped nearly a metre on the Blue Mountains, 70 centimetres on Bathurst, 55cm on Mudgee and 23cm on Forbes, while in 1910, snow from the mountains was still piled up on a train arriving at Central Station.

Late last century, colder winters could still deliver significant falls. 

A few melting snowflakes were briefly observed over Sydney's northern suburbs in July of 1986, while in 1990 snow was reported on 13 consecutive days in Oberon.

Long-term residents of the mountains shared with the ABC memories of some of last century's biggest storms.

Edward Thomas's family moved to Leura in 1955, and he vividly remembers an intense snowfall from the mid-1960s.

"Newly-engaged, I was visiting my fiancee in Katoomba. It was a Saturday and we were having the usual roast for dinner. There was no wind, still and quiet," he said.

"I looked out the window to see my little Morris Mini Deluxe covered in snow. 

"It was really coming down, but I somehow managed to drive back to Leura with the car going sideways with spinning tyres up past the shops in Leura Mall.

"The next morning, we woke to a Christmas card scene. I decided to walk back to my fiancee's house in Katoomba, a kilometre and half, with snow so deep it filled the gumboots. 

"The next couple of nights we were snowed in completely. The grass, the stone picnic shelters, the trees were completely covered more than a foot deep. It was truly a European scene. 

"The trains stopped running and all roads were closed. Nobody could go to work."

But snow has rapidly declined during the past few decades, and it has now been four years since snow has settled on the Blue Mountains.

While the occasional 20th Century winter would pass without a significant fall, like in 1973, the current absence of snow is comfortably the longest on record.

Snow drought a clear sign of a warming climate

A reduction in snow in marginally cold regions is one of the most noticeable signs of climate change since it only takes a slight warming to turn a snowstorm into a rainstorm.

The Blue Mountains is especially vulnerable at a modest altitude peaking at about 1,100 metres since the majority of its snow occurs in temperatures either near or only just below freezing.

Now consider that the average winter temperature across NSW has warmed by around 1 degrees Celsius during the past 50 years, and 1.5C since the early 20th Century.

From a climatic perspective, that is a major shift, and is sufficient to turn a snowy zero degree day, into wet and sleety 1 to 2C conditions, with no chance of accumulation.

But temperature is not the only factor behind the recent snowless winters, the position of winter weather systems across southern Australia is also changing.

It is well researched that an expansion of tropical wind circulations has forced a southern migration of cold fronts, while east coast lows, which are responsible for some the heavier Blue Mountains snowstorms, are also in decline.

So with winter systems retreating into the Southern Ocean, even when temperatures are freezing, there is not enough moisture and cloud to produce a snowfall.

But official data on the downturn is non-existent because the Bureau of Meteorology's network of weather stations don't record snow, meaning snow data in this country (away from the Alps) is mostly obtained from old newspapers and the meticulous effort of enthusiastic locals.

Lindsay Pearce from Blackheath hosts a website with the most extensive archive of Blue Mountains snowfalls dating back to the early 1800s.

And tallying up his event-by-event accounts, shown in the graph below, confirms the unprecedented snow drought during the past few years

Memories of a white winter fading

The Blue Mountains lack of recent snow is a case where residents' memories and anecdotes almost unanimously back up the data.

Gary McGuigan has been living in the Katoomba area since 1969.

"We could count on a dump of snow … at least once during the winter season, which was my experience during the 1970s and 80s," he said.

"Over the years, I have certainly observed a steady decrease … it seems like nowadays it is more about every five years or so between a decent dump."

Stuart Driver was born in Blackheath and grew up there from the late 1960s to 1980s. He told the ABC that school would close at least once a year.

"It was not, if it would snow, but how often and how deep. Now it is well and truly if," he said.

Many residents also shared the excitement of snow days. 

"I grew up with snow on my birthday in July every year in the mountains … big snow back in the 60s, 70s, 80s," Julie Stockley Farrell said.

"My babies were snow babies … our Dad used to help my sister and I build snow men and use cardboard to go down the yard, it was awesome. 

"Not so much in the last few years." 

Linda Cooper recalled her 30-plus years living in the Blue Mountains.

"Our house was on Beatty Street, and we always saw snow in the winter growing up. Our street is steep, so lots of fun sliding down the hill," she said.

"I remember one year going into Franklin's [supermarket], and when I came out the snow had dumped down so much that my car slid all way down Parke Street sideways. Ah, good times!"

Stories west of the Blue Mountains repeat a similar sentiment.

"In the 70s every year came heavy dumps, snowed-in for days on end. Just doesn't happen anymore," Michael Clark said.

"Prior to that are images of steam locomotives that couldn't make it to Oberon Station due to snow drifts metres high." 

For some, no snow means no shovelling and no closed highways, but for most locals, including Richard Eggleston from Orange, winter snowfall completes the season.

"Today's Orange youth sadly will never know the excitement of listening to the radio to confirm that school has been closed for the day," he said.