Australia Weather News

The Bureau of Metreorology says it will no longer publish a tropical cyclone seasonal outlook due to unreliability in the face of a changing climate.

The tropical cyclone seasonal outlook forecast the upcoming season's cyclonic activity. 

"This model had skill early on, but in a changing climate, these historical relationships and statistical models proved to be less reliable for predicting seasonal conditions," the bureau's senior climatologist, Felicity Gamble, said. 

Ms Gamble said the seasonal outlook had limited use for emergency preparedness, and while interesting, did not correlate to impact.

"Every year, at least one makes landfall, and it really only takes one to cause significant and potentially prolonged damage," she said.

"So having a forecast or a potential forecast that might say that there were fewer numbers than normal, for example, isn't particularly useful."

Ms Gamble said the bureau was instead focusing on climatological analysis that could show "heat maps" of peak cyclone formation and intensity, which were more useful.

Warmer wet season for WA's north

Bureau of Meteorology WA manager James Ashley said the bureau could not forecast where individual cyclone systems would develop at the current range.

"It's important that all communities in the northern part of WA prepare now, and during the season, keep across all the forecasts and warnings that come out of the bureau and DFES as the season unfolds," Mr Ashley said.

Mr Ashley said that while many cyclones did not cross the coastline, it only took one to have devastating impacts.

He said there was a "warmer than normal forecast" for the coming wet season, which correlated with increased risk of heatwaves.

Rainfall was expected to be average in the north west. 

Start preparations now

Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) deputy commissioner Craig Waters said residents who were unprepared risked their lives.

"It only takes one significant storm event to come in and not only be devastating to the community, but also put lives at risk," Mr Waters said.

Mr Waters encouraged residents to familiarise themselves with the new warning systems implemented last year.

"It's a transition that puts us in line with the rest of the country … people travelling from interstate over to WA will now receive the same warnings here that they do in other parts of the country," he said. 

Mr Waters said people should tidy up around their homes, tie down any loose items or secure them to make sure they did not become projectiles in strong winds.

"Have an emergency kit ready, including a portable battery-operated radio, a torch, spare batteries, mobile phone and obviously the charger, a first aid kit, prescription medications … and enough food and water to be self-sufficient for at least five days," he said.

Mr Waters encouraged residents to keep up to date by using the Emergency WA website and app.