Australia Weather News

Victorian skiers are likely to be treated to snowfall on the alps this weekend as they celebrate the 2025 ski season opening.

But with a mild winter forecast and even warnings of mid-year bushfires, alpine enthusiasts and industry experts say the snowy regions are at the frontline of climate change.

The Bureau of Meteorology's long-range winter forecast for 2025 showed that while average rainfall was expected for Victoria, warmer than usual winter maximum and minimum temperatures were "very likely".

The bureau has forecast snowfall conditions for most parts of Victoria's alpine regions on Friday and across the King's Birthday weekend.

But Glen Clark, who operates Traverse Hotham, said successive mild winters had brought his back-country skiing and adventure company to the brink.

"We're teetering on the edge of viability after two very tough years, and if we don't get a good season this time, we might have to walk away," he said.

"We rely completely on natural snowfall," he said.

"Last year, we were able to do zero back-country touring going into snow.

"The snowfall was so little and so poor … and the year before wasn't much better."

Independent alpine weather commentator Tyson Millar, who is an earth science student and keen back-country adventurer, said ski and snow enthusiasts across Australia were acutely aware of seasonal conditions in recent years.

"In these communities, it's actually very front of mind to be climate aware and the understandings of those impacts," he said.

Mr Millar said the topography of the Victorian Alps compared to their NSW counterparts could also make them more vulnerable to shifting climate conditions.

"[Victoria] is somewhat lower than the Snowy Mountain range," he said.

"Those mountains are quite prominent. The land mass around it drives what we know as orographic lift; it's a critical point for the snowy region.

"That lift helps with convection and moisture and ultimately precipitation and snowfall.

"It's a bigger hurdle for westerly winds to overcome, and we see disparity between NSW and Victoria in that regard."

Snow season fragility

Lily O'Neill is a director at Protect our Winters Australia and a legal researcher at the University of Melbourne.

Dr O'Neill lives in the alpine community of Bright, Victoria.

She said residents were hyper-aware of the fragility of recent snow seasons.

"What we're seeing from the climate science is that mountains in Australia are very vulnerable," Dr O'Neill said.

"We were never that cold to begin with.

"When you hit that 1.5 to 2 degrees warming, the really fragile eco-systems that exist on the mountains will be completely trounced."

She said Australia's alpine regions were not adequately protected by federal legislation.

"There's no ability to consider climate change when you're looking at new fossil fuel projects under Australia's federal climate laws," she said.

"We lawyers call it a climate trigger — there's no climate trigger."

Fire warning

Holiday-makers setting off on their long weekend camping trips in the alps are being warned about the risk of unattended campfires.

A recently published report showed areas of southern Australia already hit by ongoing drought conditions could face heightened fire risk this winter.

Forest Fire Management Victoria chief fire officer Chris Hardman said even during winter, a poorly managed campfire could cause serious damage to the environment.

"This season, we've responded to more than 370 incidents involving campfires," he said.